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Fall down n times, get up n+1


Ralph

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Yep, I'm a nerd. Can't help that. Trying sobriety again. Couldn't manage the grief process without a bit of liquid comfort but I'm now two days without alcohol. My goal is to go 30 days dry and then see if that helps with mood. I don't expect that will come without some bumps in the road but I've done this before. Maybe I'll shoot for 30 days not consecutively but with as few slip ups as possible. The challenge is to manage mistakes without it derailing the effort. From the AA method of you have so many days since your last drink, well that encourages binging since if you have a single drink that erases all your clean time, might as well have 10. OTOH being too flexible would take away the motivation to go a long enough time to start seeing cumulative effects going away. This leads me to think the attitude should be that its better to have zero than one but it's still worse to have ten. I guess my goal should be to have just a week without more than two in a night to start and then take it down after that.

I dunno. I can say I have a lot more racing thoughts right now. I have a job interview tomorrow that starts in the evening and then more iviews on the following morning. I think the point is to wear the candidate down to see how they deal with exhaustion. :)

I'm really nervous but I've started to think that a different geographical area would be better even though this would be my dream job from a strict job description standpoint. So if I get it I got my dream job but if not, I'm meant to get out of this godforsaken state.

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Let me check this out a sec:

Let n = the number of times you slip up in 30 days.

n = 0, means you have succeeded.

Assume n-1 slip ups in 30 days yields success. This would imply that you have gotten back on track n times. If you then slip up an nth time, getting back on track an n+1th time will still yield success.

Therefore, success is guaranteed for all finite values of n.

Yep. Seems sound to me.

Seriously, though. Good luck with everything. I hope your job interviews go well.

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helllooooo math heads!

Best wishes for today and this moment. I find if I can be present and realistic in the here and now, things are not so impossible. Right now I am breathing. Right now I feel the earth below me. Right now I can do this.

Let us know how the interviews went!

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n!

:-)

I'll leave y'all to decide whether that's n factorial or just me being exclamatory ... I just like to see factorials written, because they seem so enthusiastic.

I think the idea of trying to determine the minimum value of n that you can personally manage is a good one. So, find the gradient of f(n) and head downwards!

It makes perfect sense that alcohol would reduce the racing thoughts, since it reduces all thoughts. It's little wonder that people use it to self-medicate. But clearly, we need to keep some. Another optimization problem in multiple variables ...

We're pulling for you, Ralph.

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Well if n represents the number of failures, the original blog entry was just an attempt to define n in objective terms. I have no useful model to explain what variables might be controlled in order to minimize n. That is the current exploration, however I am unsure it would be worthwhile to gather a sufficiently large data set as I suspect that error terms would be more significant than the independent variables. :(

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